Rewind. 2008. I hate to say it, but I totally called the winner of the election. I knew Barack Obama was going to win the general election long before he even beat Hillary Clinton for the primary. Interestingly, my prediction that I am just now sharing with the world in 2011, was based solely on Facebook fans and their evolution. I truly wish that I would have recorded the numbers then, hindsight is 20-20. Basically it came down to Barack Obama out fanned Hillary Clinton by double and out fanned John McCain by triple. Since 2008 Obama has been tapping into his following that resides online. Current figures are 7 MILLION followers on Twitter and nearly 19 MILLION fans on Facebook. John McCain has a mere 800,000 fans on Facebook and 1.7 Million followers on Facebook. Obviously looking at Obama/McCain figures are pretty worthless at this point. What is worthwhile is thinking about the role that social media played in 2008 and the role that it will play in 2012 and beyond.
Barack Obama has potentially 26 MILLION people available at his fingertips. That is of course assuming that he doesn’t have overlapping fans, which I’m sure he does. He has a direct way to get his message out to A LOT of people at anytime. Not only that, but he also sends texts and emails. What’s more is aside from paying whoever updates his Twitter and Facebook the cost for using this as a vehicle to get his message and talking points out is zero. I suspect that the GOP is not able to exactly tap into this type of media strictly due to the age of their followers. By the time 2012 rolls around it is hard to tell how many followers Obama will have. Whoever challenges him for the presidency will have a hard time competing with the Obama social media followers.
Predictions
Based upon my rule for predicting the Obama victory in 2008 I am going to predict who the GOP candidate running against him will be. The pool is vast at this point and the only official candidate is Fred Karger.
Potential Candidate | Twitter Followers | Facebook Fans |
Fred Karger | 332 | 1,033 |
Michelle Bachmann | 39,891 | 115,905 |
Haley Barbour | 13,406 | 17,756 |
Scott Brown | 29,636 | 11,386 |
Jeb Bush | 11,421 | 5,072 |
Chris Christie | 2,611 | 9,961 |
Mitch Daniels | 2,466 | 45,930 |
Newt Gingrich | 1,313,949 | 120,411 |
Mike Huckabee | 141,849 | 557,804 |
Sarah Palin | 470,849 | 2,856,989 |
Ron Paul | 38,637 | 316,655 |
Tim Pawlenty | 28,980 | 81,455 |
Mitt Romney | 31,529 | 835,893 |
Donald Trump | 462,094 | 205,199 |
Looks like Newt Gingrich has by far the most followers on Twitter and Sarah Palin has the market on Facebook. Although it is important to remember that when the Gabby Giffords tragedy occurred Palin’s Facebook page had a surge in fans. According to my Facebook prediction Sarah Palin will be the GOP 2012 candidate. However, the media has really cooled to Palin as have some of her supporters. Plus, how many of her followers are leftovers from 2008? Mitt Romney has the second most and could prove to be the most viable candidate. Gingrich has the ability to reach over 1 Million people through Twitter. The next in line on Twitter are Palin and not surprisingly Trump with over 400,000.
Based upon these low numbers is it really possible to predict a GOP candidate using social media numbers? On the McLaughlin Group Monica Crowley pointed out that the GOP is in fact way behind in terms of social media. Either way you look at it none of these candidates even come close to touching Obama’s social media numbers. He has the ability to request donations, give information, encourage people to vote, and anything else he wants people to know. Literally with the click of a mouse. Can the GOP even compete with that in 2012? Will they want to?
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