Gas Price Blues

Perhaps one of the most frustrating issues is the raising of gas prices. It is oppressive to people who work low paying jobs. It takes money out of the pockets of people who may use that money to buy other items. On top of it all it adds to the prices of goods like bread, milk, and other groceries. If you live in the Midwest or an area without public transportation you are in fact stuck. Besides carpooling, options are limited and everyone feels the pinch. Barack Obama recently came out against the big oil companies demanding that other countries increase their supplies now that the Middle East is in crisis.  Even John Boehner was on ABC Nightly News discussing his dissention with gas companies and prices. The question remains, why are gas prices so high, and what in the world can we do about them?

Why so High?

Pretty much everyone knows that once the conflict in Libya and Egypt started gas prices began to rise more rapidly. Additionally, the summer travel season is approaching which also signals an increase in gas prices. Still, how do these events contribute to the rise in gas prices? It all has to do with speculation. See, when conflict arose in the Middle East that made investors get a little scared. They were afraid that demand would outweigh supply causing a situation where traders buy future contracts which are agreements to sell oil on a future date at a specific price. This in part was done due to the declining US dollar. Basically the traders can bid up the price of oil and create a situation where even though the demand is not outweighing the supply they make it so the prices go up and blame it on events such as Libya and Egypt.

Drill Baby Drill

As hopeless as the gas crisis may seem solutions are thrown out now and again that provide food for thought if nothing else. “Drill baby drill” is the battle cry of many members of the GOP. It does seem like a logical idea. If we open drilling in areas of the US then we will increase the amount of supply, thus lowering the demand, and in turn lowering prices. What is really overlooked in this scenario is the fact that the oil drilled in the US would enter the global oil market, not just the US market. Since we would produce relatively small amounts of oil in comparison to the rest of the world it probably wouldn’t make much of a difference in the end. In short it would be like throwing a pebble into the ocean. Alternative fuels seem to be discussed frequently, but diesel is even more expensive than gasoline currently. Biodiesel seems like a genius idea, but I’m not sure how that fuel would work with cars that only take gas. Who wants to make the investment to make it so their car can take alternative fuels and is that even possible?

What do you do?

During the gas crises most of us see our hard earned dollars go into our gas tank, grateful for the ability to drive to our job, get a paycheck and put another big chunk into our gas tanks. Undoubtedly this is frustrating, but ingenuity is the child of necessity so my question is what do you do when the gas prices are high? What changes do you make? Comment here or go to http://thevotereffect.com. Learn what other people are doing during this tight money crunch. Also comment on the issue: Is Barack Obama doing enough to lower gas prices? Does he need to be doing more?

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Raise the Roof (Or the Debt Ceiling)

After finally coming to terms with a budget for 2011 almost immediately attention turned to what to do with the debt ceiling. It seems that the debt ceiling is something that should be raised without little debate. The Republicans are pledging that they will not raise the debt limit without significant changes to current government spending levels. Democrats warn the Republicans to not play on this issue like they did the budget, dragging it out to the eleventh hour. Sounds like typical political banter, but obviously we need to pay our bills, right? Seems fairly straightforward that the debt ceiling will need to be raised and soon. If it is not raised before July we (meaning the whole world) will face catastrophic consequences. Despite these warnings according to a NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll 62% of Americans say DO NOT raise the debt ceiling. Now, let’see…Democrats and Republicans alike believe that we need to raise the debt ceiling, economists say it needs to be raised, what do 62% of the American people not know about the debt ceiling?  

What’s the Point?

Tom Coburn, US Senator from Oklahoma made an interesting point on Sunday’s Meet the Press. He states, “A debt limit doesn’t really mean anything because we’ve always extended it.” If we always extend the limit why do we even have one? The debt ceiling was actually established in 1917. This was established because prior to 1917 Congress had to gain approval every time they wanted to borrow money. Once in World War I began it became crucial that Congress had the ability to approve borrowing in a quicker manner. Basically the federal government was given approval to borrow as long as it remained under the limit of the debt ceiling. Currently the debt limit is $14.3 Trillion. This point will be reached on May 16^th with the breaking point happening on July 8^th. The debt ceiling has been raised relatively drama free for nearly 100 times, most recently in February 2010. So pretty much a debt ceiling is a reminder to the American people that the government is approaching the point where the feds have to ask before they can borrow more, but pretty much they will make it so they raise that amount anyway.

It has to be Done

Both sides agree that the debt ceiling must be raised. It is the terms that they do not agree on. We hear it over and over again that spending is at an all time 50 year high. Entitlements need to be cut, we need to raise taxes on people making over $250,000 per year, we need to eliminate tax loopholes for the very rich, we need to cut defense spending, or we need to get rid of programs. The constant debate and political posturing never seems to end. The facts are whether either side gets what they want the debt ceiling will have to be raised, so why don’t the politicians spare us the rhetoric, raise the ceiling, and then continue on with their battles. What it boils down to is that the Democrats seem to think that $2.2 Trillion is needed to get us through the year and Republicans want $1.9 Trillion to get us through this year and half of 2012. Seems close enough, or at least close enough to find a compromise, without dragging other issues into it. The hard facts are that if the debt ceiling is not raised then the US will not be paying their debts to other countries. If they are not paying their debts it could cause a global financial crisis. In short, the US has to pay their bills or everyone will pay in the end. Regardless if the debt ceiling is raised or not the debt will still be there.  

Why are we Here?

If 62% of people do not agree with raising the debt ceiling even though it virtually has to be done many of them would probably like to know why in the world we are even in this situation. Here’s the breakdown. Past 11 years, 2 wars (Iraq and Afghanistan) numerous tax cuts while at war ($4.36 Trillion), and one big ($3.9 Trillion) economic stimulus. Arguably all things that at the time the American people did not think that we could live without. As David Gregory stated on Meet the Press, “The American people want more government than they want to pay for.” Now isn’t the time for the debate on spending, rather it is a time for the parties to get it together and do what needs to be done.

To vote on the debt ceiling and more go to http://thevotereffect.com/

Special thanks to:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/whats-the-debt-ceiling-and-why-is-everyone-in-washington-talking-about-it/2011/04/15/AFSS4R1D_story.html

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Education is the Elephant in the Room

As the budget battle for 2011 is finally settled and the fight for the budget of 2012 is only beginning the question begging to be answered is, will this Congress accomplish anything besides the budget this year? Ultimately many issues are on the table unanswered and in desperate need of attention. Perhaps the most pressing of those issues is Education. Education is perhaps one of the biggest fights nationwide right now. The fight being between the lawmakers and the teachers combined with the unions. The fight does NOT seem to be getting any better; rather, the fight seems to be getting worse.

This past summer I had a conversation with a teacher. She was furious with the Obama administration over what they had or rather had not done with education. Her words have remained etched in my brain, “I stood out in the November rain holding signs for this guy, getting people to the polls, encouraging my friends to vote for him, and what do we get? Race to the top, more No Child Left Behind, more blame on teachers, and nothing in the way of the less testing we were promised.” I have thought of this teacher often especially in light of all the states revamping their budgets and trying to “bust unions.” She worked so hard to elect a person she felt would make the teacher profession better and in reality teachers are probably in some of the worst circumstances they have faced in decades.

Chris Christie

Tough talking New Jersey Governor has been outspoken about his views on teacher tenure. He states, “Lifetime job protections for public school educators hurt children in the classroom.” He has also viciously attacked the New Jersey Teacher’s union calling them “political thugs.” Teachers are up in arms about these comments and even speak out against his call to teachers to sacrifice with budget issues. Teachers are up in arms about the call for them to sacrifice as Christie gives tax breaks to the very wealthy. On ABC News Chris Christie calls for teachers to have a union that is as good as they are. He even calls teachers hard-working and dedicated. Is Chris Christie so wrong? Do school districts need to look at tenure? Are unions protecting bad teachers?

Some Stats

According to the documentary Waiting for Superman 1 out of every 57 doctors lose their license to practice medicine. Lawyers experience a 1 in 97 loss of licensure. Teachers have much better odds of keeping their jobs. Only 1 in 1,000 teachers are fired due to poor performance. It is hard to believe that standards are that low for teachers or teachers are all doing a fantastic job. Quite frankly I think that education is missing the point. We need a valid way to assess and determine what a good or bad teacher actually is. Only 1 in every 1,000 teachers are fired. Based upon the fact that we hear over and over again that our schools are failing it is important to look at the fact that we seem to be keeping the same people in place and expecting different results, teachers not making a difference, and administrators not identifying struggling teachers.

Race to Where?

During the 2008 election Barack Obama was adamant that the profession of education needed to be elevated, which included putting America’s best and brightest in front of our children. He also was clear that one test should not determine the success or failure of a school or individual teacher. What was President Obama’s answer? Race to the Top.  Race to the Top was a grant competition for states to gain money for trying out a “new” idea to raise achievement in a way that could be scaled up to a national level or utilized in other states. The idea of having to compete for money for education which is a right to every child in this country angered most states, and teachers, who felt cheated by this allocation of education funds.  Race to the Top funding was saved during the recent 11^th hour budget fight. A popular quote about Race to the Top is that, “Education is not a race.”

In all Fairness

Teachers have a tough job. In addition to doing a tough job they rarely receive feedback for what they are doing. Their administrators or direct supervisors have little understanding of what is happening within the walls of their classroom. Parents lack involvement and are often too busy or too involved in other activities to even play a role in their child’s education. School boards often are out of touch with the classroom and yet they control so much of what happens to schools. Lastly, President Obama made big promises to education, specifically teachers when education is historically a state issue. States fund and regulate education within their states. Also, NCLB was in place long before President Obama took office. No one really likes it, but at the same time, I’m not sure anyone knows what to do with it. The short answer is that education needs to be overhauled in a way that is so drastic many wouldn’t even know where to begin.

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Budget Woes

Let’s face it. Making a budget is a drag…We all have to do it. Even the Federal Government. This year the budget has been news since it wasn’t ready when the 2011 session of Congress took office. The GOP and Tea Party wanted to cut, cut, cut. The Dems wanted to keep the cuts slim because they wanted ensure that economic growth continues. The government has been issuing continuing resolutions and stopgap spending measures to avert a government shutdown. The last was issued in the final hours before the government would shut down.  Days after the averted shut down both Dems and the GOP praised themselves for coming together and compromising to make a budget deal. The question I had was…What was the compromise? Finding exactly what was up for discussion was uncertain. Programs ultimately were threatened which arguably would translate into job loss. However, what was saved at the eleventh hour of the budget discussions and what was still cut?

Bob Schieffer of CBS’s Face the Nation described the politics of the budget cuts as miniscule in comparison to the vastness of the US budget. He states, “If you were buying a house for $200,000 it would be like arguing over $400. That’s what the argument over the government budget is.” Even though the fight is over a small amount, it sure did create a stir.

What is in the Budget?

The article below has good information about what is in and what is out in the budget. It is rather long so I will provide snippets of information from the article.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/38-billion-in-cuts-in-budget-deal-will-cover-various-domestic-areas/2011/04/11/AFJihQMD_story.html

·         Education, Labor, and Health and Human Services Departments will have combined cuts of $19.8 Billion.

·         Environmental Protection Agency will lose $1.6 Billion

·         Fish and Wildlife Service $141 Million in cuts

·         National Park Servicelost $127 Million.

·         Clean drinking water state revolving funds will lose $997 Million.

·         Head Start, AmeriCorps, and implementation of new health-care and food safety laws will stay.

·         Pell Grants will be cut by $500 Million.

·         Children’s Health Insurance Program will lose roughly $3.5 Billion.

·         Money for highways and high-speed rail projects in rural areas will face cuts.

·         Consumer Operated and Oriented Plan and the Free Choice Voucher programs (COOPS program) from Obama’s health-care law will be eliminated, which eliminates $2.2 Billion from health care spending.

·         The Washington DC Metro system will not be cut and receive full funding.

·         Attached to the bill is a provision that bans federal and local funding for abortion.

Again, these are simply the highlights. For a full discussion of the cuts click here:  http://republicans.appropriations.house.gov/_files/41211SummaryFinalFY2011CR.pdf

What do people think?

The budget has spent lots of time being discussed and cussed since Congress started their session in January. At http://thevotereffect.com there is a discussion happening right now that you could take part in. http://www.thevotereffect.com/public_issues/?page=issues_search. It has been particularly interesting to follow these debates since the beginning of the budget discussions and how the users of http://thevotereffect.com responded to them. For instance the first budget discussion happened when the Tea Party suggested $100 Billion in cuts and the GOP suggested $74 Billion in cuts. The users at http://thevotereffect.com voted 37.5% against the Tea Party’s suggestion, while 62.7% voted in favor. http://www.thevotereffect.com/public_issues/?page=issue_profile&issue_id=92. Read the full discussion here. Another budget discussion is http://www.thevotereffect.com/public_issues/?page=issue_profile&issue_id=163 which asks if the budget should’ve be cut by the $61 Billion suggested by the GOP or the $30 Million suggested by the Dems. What it boiled down to was 40.7% opposing the $61 Billion in cuts and 53.3% in favor of the cuts. Also being discussed is the aspect of Defense spending. http://www.thevotereffect.com/public_issues/?page=issue_profile&issue_id=130. It has been extremely interesting to watch this debate unfold and to follow what fellow Americans are thinking at http://thevotereffect.com . Join today. It’s free and fun!

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Who is Paul Ryan?

Today the news is buzzing with Paul Ryan and his budget. He is making waves of support and opposition with his suggestion to slash Medicare and Medicaid among other programs. His plan is to put a significant dent in the national debt. Just who is this Paul Ryan?

Biography

Wisconsin Republican Paul Ryan is a seventh year veteran to the House of Representatives and the current Chairman of the House Budget Committee. He is also a senior member of the House Ways and Means Committee which has jurisdiction over tax policy, Social Security, health care, and trade laws. He currently lives in Janesville, WI and has four children. Prior to representing Wisconsin he was a waiter, marketing consultant, economic analyst, worked for several Congressmen, and political candidates. He is famous for “A Roadmap for America’s Future” which he started work on in 2008. Check out http://thevotereffect.com for bios on any Congressman.

Path to Prosperity

Ryan’s 2012 budget proposal, also called the Path to Prosperity made big news this week with drastic cuts to Medicare and Medicaid. Ryan’s not scared to blast entitlement programs in an effort to put America on the right budget path. He’s also not afraid of political aftermath which some Republicans. He believes that if opponents criticize their budget it will be skewed and unfounded. Here is the breakdown of his Path to Prosperity. Once you read it you can decide if you agree or disagree with his proposal.

·        Bring government agency funding back down to 2008 levels and freeze spending at this level for 5 years. Included in this are agriculture subsidy reform, reducing the federal work force, and looking for inefficiencies at the Pentagon.

·        Welfare reform that includes turning Medicaid back to the states, as well as food stamp reform that ensures that states will not receive incentives for adding to the rolls. Also, the Welfare Reform will promote finding a job at the end of the welfare benefits.

·        Medicare reform in the form of block grants.

·        Tax reform.

For the entire Path to Prosperity: http://paulryan.house.gov/UploadedFiles/PathToProsperityFY2012.pdf

Democrats came out strongly against the Path to Prosperity. The argued that it was much of the same rhetoric coming from the GOP since George W. Bush was in office. They argue that it is privatizing too much and taking us down the path of recession once again.

The GOP is split, but mostly feels that the proposal is on the table and that is more than what the Dems have at this point. Proponents of the Path to Prosperity are certain that it would skyrocket private sector jobs and generate spending by cutting taxes and stopping wasteful spending. Some republicans are also concerned about the effects that these harsh cuts could have on the upcoming election. Paul Ryan isn’t concerned with creating enemies. He believes he is doing the job he was sent to do.

Interestingly and important to point out is that the Path to Prosperity is a budget proposal for 2012. The government currently faces a shutdown this Friday, April 8^th, if they cannot come to an agreement about the 2011 budget. Basically planning the 2012 budget is like putting the cart before the horse. They likely won’t be getting far with it anytime soon.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703806304576242612172357504.html

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Social Media & the 2012 Election

Rewind. 2008. I hate to say it, but I totally called the winner of the election. I knew Barack Obama was going to win the general election long before he even beat Hillary Clinton for the primary. Interestingly, my prediction that I am just now sharing with the world in 2011, was based solely on Facebook fans and their evolution. I truly wish that I would have recorded the numbers then, hindsight is 20-20. Basically it came down to Barack Obama out fanned Hillary Clinton by double and out fanned John McCain by triple. Since 2008 Obama has been tapping into his following that resides online. Current figures are 7 MILLION followers on Twitter and nearly 19 MILLION fans on Facebook. John McCain has a mere  800,000 fans on Facebook and 1.7 Million followers on Facebook. Obviously looking at Obama/McCain figures are pretty worthless at this point. What is worthwhile is thinking about the role that social media played in 2008 and the role that it will play in 2012 and beyond.

Barack Obama has potentially 26 MILLION people available at his fingertips. That is of course assuming that he doesn’t have overlapping fans, which I’m sure he does. He has a direct way to get his message out to A LOT of people at anytime.  Not only that, but he also sends texts and emails. What’s more is aside from paying whoever updates his Twitter and Facebook the cost for using this as a vehicle to get his message and talking points out is zero. I suspect that the GOP is not able to exactly tap into this type of media strictly due to the age of their followers. By the time 2012 rolls around it is hard to tell how many followers Obama will have. Whoever challenges him for the presidency will have a hard time competing with the Obama  social media followers.

Predictions

Based upon my rule for predicting the Obama victory in 2008 I am going to predict who the GOP candidate running against him will be. The pool is vast at this point and the only official candidate is Fred Karger.

Potential Candidate	Twitter Followers	Facebook Fans
Fred Karger	332	1,033
Michelle Bachmann	39,891	115,905
Haley Barbour	13,406	17,756
Scott Brown	29,636	11,386
Jeb Bush	11,421	5,072
Chris Christie	2,611	9,961
Mitch Daniels	2,466	45,930
Newt Gingrich	1,313,949	120,411
Mike Huckabee	141,849	557,804
Sarah Palin	470,849	2,856,989
Ron Paul	38,637	316,655
Tim Pawlenty	28,980	81,455
Mitt Romney	31,529	835,893
Donald Trump	462,094	205,199

Looks like Newt Gingrich has by far the most followers on Twitter and Sarah Palin has the market on Facebook. Although it is important to remember that when the Gabby Giffords tragedy occurred Palin’s Facebook page had a surge in fans. According to my Facebook prediction Sarah Palin will be the GOP 2012 candidate. However, the media has really cooled to Palin as have some of her supporters. Plus, how many of her followers are leftovers from 2008? Mitt Romney has the second most and could prove to be the most viable candidate. Gingrich has the ability to reach over 1 Million people through Twitter. The next in line on Twitter are Palin and not surprisingly Trump with over 400,000.

Based upon these low numbers is it really possible to predict a GOP candidate using social media numbers? On the McLaughlin Group Monica Crowley pointed out that the GOP is in fact way behind in terms of social media. Either way you look at it none of these candidates even come close to touching Obama’s social media numbers. He has the ability to request donations, give information, encourage people to vote, and anything else he wants people to know. Literally with the click of a mouse. Can the GOP even compete with that in 2012? Will they want to?

What are your GOP predictions? Can anyone beat Barack Obama? Comment and give your opinion at http://thevotereffect.com. It is fun and free! Join today!

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